Global Business Review 2026: What Has Changed and What It Means for 2027

The IMF’s July outlook projected global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. The OECD’s September outlook projected 2.9% and 3.0%, respectively. Both describe continued expansion, but neither provides grounds for assuming that every market will become easier next year.

The World Bank’s June assessment was more cautious, projecting 2.5% growth in 2026, followed by strengthening activity in 2027–2028 as energy supplies recover and trade improves. These forecasts come from different publication dates and frameworks; they should not be treated as interchangeable measures.

For an individual company, the useful question is more specific:

What evidence supports the growth we have put into our budget?

A larger sales pipeline is encouraging. It becomes a credible planning assumption when management understands conversion rates, purchasing decisions, delivery requirements and the margin those sales will produce.

The OECD’s September assessment identifies renewed energy price pressure, continuing changes in tariffs and export restrictions, and higher long-term interest rates. It also expects inflation to ease gradually in 2027, with considerable uncertainty surrounding energy markets.

Our practical reading is that businesses should review how quickly changes in their costs reach their customer prices.

A company can remain busy while its margins deteriorate. Fixed-price contracts, unpriced service requests, discounts and expensive delivery arrangements can absorb the value of additional sales.

Before approving the 2027 budget, management should examine:

• Which contracts leave the company carrying cost increases?
• Which customers require more work than their price covers?
• Where do discounts continue without a clear commercial reason?
• How long does it take to adjust prices when costs change?

Revenue growth deserves closer examination when the cost of earning it is growing faster.

The IMF identifies AI-driven demand as a source of strength for economies connected to the technology value chain. The World Bank also sees potential productivity gains from broader AI adoption, while emphasising the uncertainty and uneven distribution of those gains.

For leadership teams, our recommendation is to assess technology spending through a defined operating problem.

Will the investment reduce processing time? Improve accuracy? Increase delivery capacity? Help employees make better decisions? What must change in the workflow for those benefits to appear?

Buying a tool is only one part of the investment. Implementation, training, supervision and integration also consume money and management attention.

A useful proposal should identify the current baseline, the expected improvement, the full cost and the person responsible for measuring the result.

The business case should explain what improves, by how much, and when.

Our view is that 2027 growth plans should be tested against cash requirements as carefully as sales potential.

Additional revenue may require stock, recruitment, equipment or supplier payments before customers pay their invoices. A profitable order can still create a financing problem.

Each significant growth commitment should therefore answer four questions:

1. How much cash is required before revenue is collected?
2. What happens if sales arrive later than expected?
3. Can the company deliver without weakening service elsewhere?
4. What evidence would justify releasing the next stage of funding?

Staged commitments can help companies pursue opportunities while retaining room to adjust.

An additional product, market or customer segment brings obligations: selling, delivery, support, reporting and coordination.

Our recommendation is to make those obligations visible before protecting every activity in next year’s plan.

Review profitability by customer, offer and business line. Include the work required to serve each one. Examine where exceptions have become routine and where management repeatedly intervenes to keep delivery moving.

Some activities deserve more investment. Others need different pricing, clearer boundaries or a simpler delivery model. Some may need to end.

A stronger business needs a clear reason for the activities it continues to fund.

The following questions turn the outlook into decisions:

The answers should lead to named decisions, responsible owners and dates for review.

Our recommendation is to prepare a base plan alongside a more difficult scenario. Identify what would trigger a change in spending, hiring, pricing or expansion, and agree those responses before pressure builds.

The question for 2027 is whether the company can turn opportunity into profit and cash without creating obligations it cannot sustain.

That requires clear customer choices, realistic delivery costs and disciplined investment decisions.