Skale Egenkapital – Insights
As we approach 2026, business conditions are changing. The influence comes less from a single disruption and more from the convergence of structural pressures.
Artificial intelligence is moving from experimentation into decision-support and decision-influencing systems.
Climate exposure is translating into operational, financial, and insurance risk.
Globalisation is fragmenting into regional and political blocs rather than disappearing.
And workforces are showing clear limits to overload and incoherent strategy.
For CEOs and business owners, the central challenge is no longer prediction.
It is preparation.
The 2026 Context
In Europe, regulatory frameworks around AI, sustainability, and corporate reporting are becoming more defined. This does not reduce competitiveness. It rewards companies that integrate governance early rather than retrofit it later (European Commission, 2024).
In the United States, innovation capacity and capital availability remain strong. However, volatility is increasing. This volatility is linked to political cycles, trade policy, and regulatory divergence (World Economic Forum, 2025).
China continues to invest heavily in manufacturing, automation, and AI-enabled efficiency. At the same time, market access is becoming more selective and strategically aligned.
Globally, the period of frictionless globalisation has ended. Companies are operating in a world of constraints rather than abundance.
Three Forces Shaping 2026
Across regions and sectors, three forces are consistently visible:
- AI transitioning from tools to systems influencing decisions (Harari, 2024)
- Climate risk becoming operational and financial risk (IPCC, 2023)
- Talent shifting towards coherence, stability, and purpose (WEF, 2025)
These forces are interconnected. Addressing them in isolation increases exposure rather than reducing it.
Sector Risk Overview
Manufacturing faces elevated exposure to energy volatility, supply-chain concentration, and AI deployed in quality or safety-critical contexts. Human oversight and supplier resilience are becoming strategic priorities.
SaaS and digital platforms face heightened scrutiny due to algorithmic opacity, data governance, and AI capability claims. Clear accountability and documentation are increasingly decisive.
Infrastructure and utilities are directly exposed to physical climate risk. Extreme weather, asset resilience, and insurance availability are no longer exceptional considerations (Kemp, 2025).
Service-based sectors face growing reputational and regulatory exposure where AI affects people directly, particularly in HR, finance, health, and education.
A Simple CEO and Board Readiness Test
Leadership teams should be able to answer three questions clearly:
- Where does AI influence decisions today, and who remains accountable?
- Are climate risks treated as financial and operational risks, not only sustainability topics?
- Is strategy aligned with the organisation’s real execution capacity?
Unclear answers signal accumulated risk.
Regulation as a Strategic Signal
The EU AI Act reinforces a simple principle. Responsibility remains with the organisation, even when systems are automated or externally sourced.
CSRD reframes sustainability reporting as a governance and risk discipline rather than a communication exercise.
In both cases, the message is consistent: oversight, documentation, and coherence matter more than speed.
What Will Differentiate Strong Businesses
Businesses that perform well in 2026 are to:
- Reduce unnecessary complexity
- Treat AI and climate as governance topics
- Build financial and operational buffers
- Align ambition with execution capacity
Clarity is becoming a competitive differentiator.
Final Thought
The dominant risk going into 2026 is not technological change.
It is governance lag.
Clarity is no longer a communication preference.
It is a leadership obligation.